Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso

Posted 08/01/2019 3:43PM CTJohn Caruso

Powell banged the gong, but it wasn’t loud enough. Not.Dovish.Enough. was the result of yesterday’s FOMC announcement. If you listened to Powell’s press conference yesterday, it was an absolute disaster – walking on egg shells, walking back statements, etc – he sounded foolish.  It’s impossible for the Fed to create or “re-flate” asset prices with the current direction of the U.S. Dollar. Mathematically impossible. The yield-curve, 2s vs 10s compressed to 14 bps on the announcement as well, despite the Fed expectations that is would steepen!  This is also why Draghi likely wasn’t as dovish as the market expected last week, because he knew Powell was going to do the job for him. 

And how do you feel about this Mr. President?

Classic correction in gold/silver prices – while CNBC and every other two-bit blog writer was pounding the table telling you to buy on Tuesday. We could’ve easily been left behind on this but, but our process based decisions thankfully don’t allow us to chase markets at the top of the range. Now, we’ve got a great opportunity to buy back into the things we like on sale.

Oil fell victim to the USD rally yesterday. Textbook sell at the top of the range/bearish 3-6 month trending basis.

The only thing we’re not getting – but might tomorrow – is rising yields.  The bond markets not buying any of this FOMC crap, and firmly is telling you that lower rates are still likely coming. 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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