RJO FuturesCast

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Indices

Strong Jobs Data Move Equities to All-Time Highs

Posted 11/01/2019 9:41AM CT | Ian Bannon

U.S. equity futures are unanimously in the green Friday morning after the release of upbeat jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 90,000 in September, but the actual number came in at 128,000. The labor market remains strong, with average hourly earnings growing by 3% year-over-year, right in line with expectations. The wage growth component will be a key factor moving forward. When the economy moves into the late stages of the business cycle, we see wage growth accelerate. This is the result of a saturated labor market, and it tells investors the economy is operating at full employment. From there, nonfarm payrolls can be expected to slow down. We are not there yet. Chairman Powell acknowledged the strong labor market when he hinted at a pause in the rate cut cycle during Wednesday’s Fed announcement. Essentially, the strong labor market is helping to prop up the American consumer, which is helping to prop up the broader economy. And these labor numbers indicate that we have not yet reached a tipping point. Technically speaking, the e-mini S&P chart could not have a more bullish configuration. Each dip over the last 6 months has been proceeded by higher lows, and stocks are now breaking out of a one-year consolidation period. In short, the bull has not yet run out of steam, and a close over 3055 hints that another leg higher is in short order.

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Ian Bannon

Market Strategist
Ian’s interest in trading began with the stock market after graduating from Purdue University with a degree in Economics and a focus in international business. A natural strength for numbers, trends, and pattern recognition, in conjunction with a curiosity to understand the big picture has enabled a desire to understand market behavior. Ian managed his own stock account before moving into the futures arena because of the wide scope of trade-able sectors and the ample amount of fundamental support behind these larger-scope markets.
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