RJO FuturesCast

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Interest Rates

U.S. Treasuries Trending Down

Posted 11/13/2019 11:12AM CT | Greg Perlin

Looking at the December 10-year futures contract, we are currently trading at 128.275, with a high of 128.295 and a low 128.105.  The trend has certainly been down with the contract hitting a new low last Thursday at 127.315.  Interestingly enough, the last four days we have seen higher lows, so the market has clearly temporarily seen a bottom in trade. One can assume that yields have gone up too far too fast in addition to some healthy short covering. For bulls, a close over 128.275 could lead to a push to the 129-04-06 level. For that to happen, bulls are looking for weaker than expected data, any negative back and forth with China on phase one of the trade deal, or a substantial drop in equity prices, could lead to a flight to quality type of trade.  This morning we had the CPI which came out a bit better than expected and the 10-year note is still higher on the day, which is interesting because normally better economic news is bearish for treasuries. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is currently conducting a hearing on the economy before the Economic Committee of the United States Congress.  Traders are on edge looking to hear anything on economy and rates. The rest of the week on the economic front, we have PPI tomorrow, and on Friday we get retail sales which could be a big market mover so stay tuned.

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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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