Softs

Technical Levels Create Break-out in Cocoa Futures

Posted 11/14/2019 8:08AM CTPeter Mooses

The move higher this week is all technical. Demand is still a concern. Supply is uncertain. Global market uncertainty is still relevant. After consolidation in the March contract for almost 2-months the contract was due for a break-out. Once 2560 was broken, 2600 was the next level and price needed for the market to close above to see the cocoa market follow-through on its initial break-out.

To end the week, first notice day on the December contract is November 15th, longs will exit or roll their positions. The Commitment of Traders data after the close Friday will also help us see how traders are positioning themselves as we move to the March contract and focus on the new year.

Traders will continue to monitor supply/demand and weather in key growing regions. If the currencies come back into play, look for activity in the Euro or Pound to add to current support levels.

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.